Applied Time Series Modelling and Forecasting
Autor Richard Harris, Robert Sollis, Mchenry Harrisen Limba Engleză Paperback – 19 mai 2003
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Specificații
ISBN-13: 9780470844434
ISBN-10: 0470844434
Pagini: 316
Dimensiuni: 170 x 244 x 17 mm
Greutate: 0.55 kg
Ediția:New.
Editura: Wiley
Locul publicării:Chichester, United Kingdom
ISBN-10: 0470844434
Pagini: 316
Dimensiuni: 170 x 244 x 17 mm
Greutate: 0.55 kg
Ediția:New.
Editura: Wiley
Locul publicării:Chichester, United Kingdom
Public țintă
Students taking courses in Financial Economics and Forecasting, Applied Time Series, and Econometrics at Advanced Undergraduate and Postgraduate Levels. It will also be of great use for Practitioners who wish to understand the Application of Time Series Modelling e.g. Financial BrokersNotă biografică
Richard A Harris, that's me, is a bit of a dreamer. On the one hand I am a busy Vascular Surgeon to real people. On the other a daydreamer and writer who fell in love with words a long time ago. I live in Sydney Australia, one of the most beautiful places on the planet and I'm deeply appreciative of my surrounds, my family and friends. I set about writing Imagine and a second book on the Thursday and Friday of what had previously been a somewhat disorganised and frustrating week in the life of a surgeon. Loving this profession but yearning to set some dreams, some adventures and some love down on paper. So, Thursday became Imagine and Friday became the second novel that will also be born shortly. It has been a hard couple of years for many. I lost my wonderful partner and Mum of my 2 gorgeous kids in early 2020 to breast cancer. So, grief has been part of the birth of these words, but they are written really just for love, hope and fun. I sincerely hope you will enjoy my words.Apart from surgery I have been a musician, a backpacker, a poet and painter. I have managed to get a public hospital rebuilt that was literally falling into the ground. (Hornsby Hospital) and in the surgical world I have progressed from the old style, massive operations that I learnt on to state of the art minimally invasive high tech treatment of patients with arterial and venous problems.I am finding time to overcome the grief that accompanies losing a best friend and to find the strength to finish my second novel shortly which will be another joyful journey into love, myth, history and words.
Cuprins
Preface. 1. Introduction and Overview.
Some Initial Concepts.
Forecasting.
Outline of the Book.
2. Short- and Long-run Models.
Long-run Models.
Stationary and Non-stationary Time Series.
Spurious Regressions.
Cointegration.
Short-run Models.
Conclusion.
3. Testing for Unit Roots.
The Dickey-Fuller Test.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test.
Power and Level of Unit Root Tests.
Structural Breaks and Unit Root Tests.
Seasonal Unit Roots.
Structural Breaks and Seasonal Unit Root Tests.
Periodic Integration and Unit Root-testing.
Conclusion on Unit Root Tests.
4. Cointegration in Single Equations.
The Engle-Granger (EG) Approach.
Testing for Cointegration with a Structural Break.
Alternative Approaches.
Problems with the Single Equation Approach.
Estimating the Short-run Dynamic Model.
Seasonal Cointegration.
Periodic Cointegration.
Asymmetric Tests for Cointegration.
Conclusion s.
5. Cointegration in Multivariate Systems.
The Johansen Approach.
Testing the Order of Integration of the Variables.
Formulation of the Dynamic Model.
Testing for Reduced Rank.
Deterministic Components in the Multivariate Model.
Testing of Weak Exogeneity and VECM with Exogenous I (l) Variables.
Testing for Linear Hypotheses on Cointegration Relations.
Testing for Unique Cointegration Vectors.
Joint Tests of Restrictions on α and β Seasonal Unit Roots.
Seasonal Cointegration.
Conclusions.
Appendix 1: Programming in SHAZAM.
6. Modelling the Short-run Multivariate System.
Introduction.
Estimating the Long-run Cointegration Relationships.
Parsimonious VECM.
Conditional PVECM.
Structural Modelling.
Structural Macroeconomic Modelling.
7. Panel Data Models and Cointegration.
Introduction.
Panel Data and Modelling Techniques.
Panel Unit Root Tests.
Testing for Cointegration in Panels.
Estimating Panel Cointegration Models.
Conclusion on Testing for Unit Roots and Cointegration in Panel Data.
8. Modelling and Forecasting Financial Times Series.
Introduction.
ARCH and GARCH.
Multivariate GARCH.
Estimation and Testing.
An Empirical Application of ARCH and GARCH Models.
ARCH-M.
Asymmetric GARCH Models.
Integrated and Fractionally Integrated GARCH Models.
Conditional Heteroscedasticity, Unit Roots and Cointegration.
Forecasting with GARCH Models.
Further Methods for Forecast Evaluation.
Conclusions on Modelling and Forecasting Financial Time Series.
Appendix: Cointegration Analysis Using the Johansen Technique: A Practitioner's Guide to PcGive 10.1.
Statistical Appendix.
References.
Index.
Some Initial Concepts.
Forecasting.
Outline of the Book.
2. Short- and Long-run Models.
Long-run Models.
Stationary and Non-stationary Time Series.
Spurious Regressions.
Cointegration.
Short-run Models.
Conclusion.
3. Testing for Unit Roots.
The Dickey-Fuller Test.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test.
Power and Level of Unit Root Tests.
Structural Breaks and Unit Root Tests.
Seasonal Unit Roots.
Structural Breaks and Seasonal Unit Root Tests.
Periodic Integration and Unit Root-testing.
Conclusion on Unit Root Tests.
4. Cointegration in Single Equations.
The Engle-Granger (EG) Approach.
Testing for Cointegration with a Structural Break.
Alternative Approaches.
Problems with the Single Equation Approach.
Estimating the Short-run Dynamic Model.
Seasonal Cointegration.
Periodic Cointegration.
Asymmetric Tests for Cointegration.
Conclusion s.
5. Cointegration in Multivariate Systems.
The Johansen Approach.
Testing the Order of Integration of the Variables.
Formulation of the Dynamic Model.
Testing for Reduced Rank.
Deterministic Components in the Multivariate Model.
Testing of Weak Exogeneity and VECM with Exogenous I (l) Variables.
Testing for Linear Hypotheses on Cointegration Relations.
Testing for Unique Cointegration Vectors.
Joint Tests of Restrictions on α and β Seasonal Unit Roots.
Seasonal Cointegration.
Conclusions.
Appendix 1: Programming in SHAZAM.
6. Modelling the Short-run Multivariate System.
Introduction.
Estimating the Long-run Cointegration Relationships.
Parsimonious VECM.
Conditional PVECM.
Structural Modelling.
Structural Macroeconomic Modelling.
7. Panel Data Models and Cointegration.
Introduction.
Panel Data and Modelling Techniques.
Panel Unit Root Tests.
Testing for Cointegration in Panels.
Estimating Panel Cointegration Models.
Conclusion on Testing for Unit Roots and Cointegration in Panel Data.
8. Modelling and Forecasting Financial Times Series.
Introduction.
ARCH and GARCH.
Multivariate GARCH.
Estimation and Testing.
An Empirical Application of ARCH and GARCH Models.
ARCH-M.
Asymmetric GARCH Models.
Integrated and Fractionally Integrated GARCH Models.
Conditional Heteroscedasticity, Unit Roots and Cointegration.
Forecasting with GARCH Models.
Further Methods for Forecast Evaluation.
Conclusions on Modelling and Forecasting Financial Time Series.
Appendix: Cointegration Analysis Using the Johansen Technique: A Practitioner's Guide to PcGive 10.1.
Statistical Appendix.
References.
Index.
Descriere
The text has been thoroughly updated to incorporate recent developments and includes three major new chapters on: time series modelling in the financial economics area, the Harvey approach to structural time series modelling and cointegration, and panel data models and non--stationary time series.