Regime Transitions, Spillovers and Buffer Stocks: Analysing the Swiss Economy by Means of a Disequilibrium Model: Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, cartea 360

1. Introduction.- 1.1 Alternative theories of macroeconomic fluctuations.- 1.2 Assessment of the controversy — Motivation of the present study.- 1.3 Scope and limitations of the investigation.- 1.4 Set-up of the paper.- 2. The Micro Model.- 2.1 Spillovers and transactions.- 2.2 Discussion of the spillover elasticities.- 2.3 Regimes.- Appendix: Comparision with other spillover-formulations.- 3. Derivation of the Aggregate Model.- 3.1 Aggregation.- 3.2 Introduction of error terms.- 3.3 Adopting an econometrically tractable approximation.- 3.4 Accuracy of the approximation.- 4. Modified Version: Buffer Role of Inventories and Unfilled Orders.- 5. Specification of the Aggregate Econometric Equations.- 5.1 Labor supply.- 5.2 Demand for domestic output.- 5.3 Notional labor demand, notional goods supply and investment.- 6. Structure of the Model, Method of Estimation and Dynamic Ncxtensions.- 6.1 Allowing for a trend in labor market mismatch.- 6.2 Summary of the model.- 6.3 Method of estimation.- 6.4 Labor hoarding, partial adjustment and error correction dynamics.- 7. Estimation results.- 7.1 Empirical versions — Models 1 to 4.- 7.2 Model 1: No buffer stocks, ‘static’ labor hoarding.- 7.3 Model 2: No buffer stocks, dynamic labor hoarding.- 7.4 Model 3: Allowing for buffer stocks.- 7.5 Model 4: Inclusion of the investment equation.- 7.6 Interpreting Model 4 — Testing a priori parameter restrictions.- 7.7 Intertemporal substitution in labor supply — Comparison with other studies.- 8. Testing Parameter Stability.- 9. Simulations.- 9.1 Fit of the model (static simulation).- 9.2 Development of the Swiss economy: Regimes and spillovers.- 9.3 The Swiss labor market — A miracle?.- 9.4 Dynamic tracking performance.- 9.5 Simulating short-run and long-run effects ofautonomous changes, assessing dynamic stability.- 10. Summary and Conclusions.- References.