Zheleznodorozhnye rel'sy yavlyayutsya osnovnym elementom verkhnego stroeniya puti, a zheleznodorozhnyy transport yavlyaetsya prevaliruyushchim vidom transporta vo mnogikh stranakh mira,v tom chisle i v Rossii. Zheleznodorozhnyy transport yavlyaetsya sredstvom povyshennoy opasnosti, a riski, s nim svyazannye, assotsiiruyutsya s vozmozhnymi posledstviyami skhodov poezdov, vozmozhnykh ekologicheskikh katastrof i finansovykh zatrat, svyazannykh s poterey osnovnykh fondov, priostanovke perevozochnogo protsessa i ustraneniya posledstviy krusheniy. Razlichnye tekhnologii i normativnye dokumenty, napravlennye na povyshenie bezopasnosti dvizheniya, postoyanno sovershenstvuyutsya i prinimayutsya k ispolneniyu rabotnikami lineynykh predpriyatiy zheleznykh dorog,odnako, podobnye sobytiya vse eshche proiskhodyat. Veroyatnost' skhodov podvizhnogo sostava i izlomov rel'sov pod poezdami mozhno minimizirovat' putem gluboko issledovaniya prichin, privodyashchikh k etim sobytiyam. V rabote predstavleny matematicheskie modeli, kolichestvenno opredelyayushchie kriterii, neobkhodimye dlya prognozirovaniya zhivuchesti defektnykh rel'sov s konkretnoy geometriey poperechnykh treshchin v ekspluatatsii, a takzhe pozvolyayushchie otsenit' ikh ostatochnuyu prochnost'.