Making Better Decisions
Autor Gilboaen Limba Engleză Paperback – oct 2010
Preț: 426.73 lei
Puncte Express: 640
Carte tipărită la comandă
Livrare economică 19 octombrie-02 noiembrie
Livrare prin curier în România Termenul estimat este afișat lângă disponibilitate.
Transport gratuit pentru acest produs Plată online sau ramburs, în funcție de opțiunile comenzii.
Retur gratuit în 14 zile Comandă securizată și suport în română.
Specificații
ISBN-13: 9781444336528
ISBN-10: 1444336525
Pagini: 232
Ilustrații: black & white illustrations, black & white line drawings, black & white tables, figures
Dimensiuni: 152 x 229 x 13 mm
Greutate: 0.34 kg
Editura: Wiley
Locul publicării:Hoboken, United States
ISBN-10: 1444336525
Pagini: 232
Ilustrații: black & white illustrations, black & white line drawings, black & white tables, figures
Dimensiuni: 152 x 229 x 13 mm
Greutate: 0.34 kg
Editura: Wiley
Locul publicării:Hoboken, United States
Public țintă
Undergraduate students and academics of Economics and Management; students of Intermediate Microeconomics and Business Strategy; MBA studentsNotă biografică
Itzhak Gilboa is a chaired Professor in the Department of Economics and Decision Sciences at HEC, Paris and in the Eitan Berglas School of Economics at Tel Aviv University, and Fellow of the Cowles Foundation at Yale University. He previously held the position of chaired Professor at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. Gilboa's research focuses on decision under uncertainty. He has worked with David Schmeidler on axiomatic foundation of non-Bayesian decision theory and contributed to research in complexity in game theory, evolutionary game theory, and social choice. He is co-author of A Theory of Case-Based Decisions (with David Schmeidler, 2001), and author of Theory of Decision under Uncertainty (2009) and of Rational Choice (2010).
Cuprins
Preface viii Acknowledgments x
1 Background 1
Suggested Reading 5
2 Judgment and Choice Biases 6
Introduction 6
Problems - Group A 9
Problems - Group B 12
Framing Effects 15
Brainstorming and Formal Models 20
Endowment Effect 22
Sunk Costs 27
Decision Trees 30
Representativeness Heuristic 34
Availability Heuristic 39
Anchoring 44
Mental Accounting 46
Dynamic Inconsistency 51
Exercises 53
3 Consuming Statistical Data 57
Introduction 57
Problems 58
Conditional Probabilities 63
Gambler's Fallacy 72
Biased Samples 77
Regression to the Mean 80
Correlation and Causation 81
Statistical Significance 84
Bayesian and Classical Statistics 85
Exercises 93
4 Decisions under Risk 98
Introduction 98
Problems 99
The Independence Axiom 102
Von Neumann and Morgenstern's Result 110
Measurement of Utility 113
Risk Aversion 116
Prospect Theory 123
Exercises 130
5 Decisions under Uncertainty 133
Introduction 133
Problems 134
Subjective Probability 141
Learning From the Fact We Know 151
Causality 163
The Sure Thing Principle 166
Alternative Models 171
Objective Probabilities 172
Exercises 174
6 Well-Being and Happiness 178
Introduction 178
Problems - Group A 179
Problems - Group B 180
Measurement Issues 184
What's Happiness? 186
Exercises 188
Appendix A: Optimal Choice 191
Appendix B: Probability and Statistics 195
Solutions 204
Index 210
1 Background 1
Suggested Reading 5
2 Judgment and Choice Biases 6
Introduction 6
Problems - Group A 9
Problems - Group B 12
Framing Effects 15
Brainstorming and Formal Models 20
Endowment Effect 22
Sunk Costs 27
Decision Trees 30
Representativeness Heuristic 34
Availability Heuristic 39
Anchoring 44
Mental Accounting 46
Dynamic Inconsistency 51
Exercises 53
3 Consuming Statistical Data 57
Introduction 57
Problems 58
Conditional Probabilities 63
Gambler's Fallacy 72
Biased Samples 77
Regression to the Mean 80
Correlation and Causation 81
Statistical Significance 84
Bayesian and Classical Statistics 85
Exercises 93
4 Decisions under Risk 98
Introduction 98
Problems 99
The Independence Axiom 102
Von Neumann and Morgenstern's Result 110
Measurement of Utility 113
Risk Aversion 116
Prospect Theory 123
Exercises 130
5 Decisions under Uncertainty 133
Introduction 133
Problems 134
Subjective Probability 141
Learning From the Fact We Know 151
Causality 163
The Sure Thing Principle 166
Alternative Models 171
Objective Probabilities 172
Exercises 174
6 Well-Being and Happiness 178
Introduction 178
Problems - Group A 179
Problems - Group B 180
Measurement Issues 184
What's Happiness? 186
Exercises 188
Appendix A: Optimal Choice 191
Appendix B: Probability and Statistics 195
Solutions 204
Index 210
Descriere
Making Better Decisions offers explanations of both the theories we would like to adopt in order to make better decisions, and the theories that explain how those around us behave.