Expert Adjustments of Model Forecasts: Theory, Practice and Strategies for Improvement
Autor Philip Hans Fransesen Limba Engleză Paperback – 5 oct 2014
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Livrare economică 08-22 iunie
Specificații
ISBN-13: 9781107441613
ISBN-10: 1107441617
Pagini: 143
Ilustrații: 9 b/w illus. 18 tables
Dimensiuni: 150 x 226 x 8 mm
Greutate: 0.2 kg
Editura: Cambridge University Press
Colecția Cambridge University Press
Locul publicării:New York, United States
ISBN-10: 1107441617
Pagini: 143
Ilustrații: 9 b/w illus. 18 tables
Dimensiuni: 150 x 226 x 8 mm
Greutate: 0.2 kg
Editura: Cambridge University Press
Colecția Cambridge University Press
Locul publicării:New York, United States
Cuprins
Preface; 1. Introduction; 2. Optimal behavior of experts; 3. Observed behavior of experts; 4. How accurate are expert-adjusted forecasts?; 5. How can forecasts be improved?; 6. Conclusion, limitations and implications; Data appendix; References; Index.
Recenzii
'All economic and business forecasting involves judgment to some extent, but most books focus on the application of statistical methods. At last we have a book that directly addresses the role of judgment in forecasting and applies a set of rigorous methods to assess its potential strengths and limitations.' Paul Goodwin, Emeritus Professor, University of Bath
'This monograph is an important substantial analysis of a crucial aspect of forecasting practice that is often treated far too casually. Expert interventions on model-based forecasts are ubiquitous, but rarely subject to formal analysis. This book will be valuable in practice and a stimulus to researchers.' Derek Bunn, London Business School
'This monograph is an important substantial analysis of a crucial aspect of forecasting practice that is often treated far too casually. Expert interventions on model-based forecasts are ubiquitous, but rarely subject to formal analysis. This book will be valuable in practice and a stimulus to researchers.' Derek Bunn, London Business School
Descriere
Brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment of model forecasts from an econometric perspective.