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Simmering Seas: Escalation and De-escalation in China's Maritime Disputes

Autor Shuxian Luo
en Limba Engleză Hardback – 20 noi 2026
Since the turn of the century, China has adopted a wide range of approaches to address maritime territorial and boundary disputes, defying simple categorization. Despite its rapidly growing power, Beijing has not invariably utilized an assertive, escalatory posture, nor has it consistently taken an accommodating, de-escalatory stance as its "good neighborly diplomacy" would suggest. When China has chosen to escalate, its strategies have varied widely in both nature--nonmilitary or military--and intensity. What accounts for these variations? And, what do these variations mean for the potential of maritime conflict and cooperation in Asia?In Simmering Seas, Shuxian Luo presents the first systematic examination of China's escalation and de-escalation decisions and strategies in the East China Sea, South China Sea, and the Yellow Sea from 2000 to 2022. Drawing on granular data, untapped authoritative Chinese sources, and over 150 interviews with officials and experts across the Asia-Pacific and the United States, Luo reveals that China is neither a reckless aggressor nor a peaceful giant. Instead, it is a calculating player, often trapped by its own domestic politics and restrained by its international aspirations. Luo explains that China tends to opt for escalation when the potential domestic political cost of moderation outweighs the anticipated international cost of assertiveness. Furthermore, China is most likely to engage in military escalation when it seeks to compel a rival claimant to retract undesired actions.Original and authoritative, Simmering Seas explains the history and strategic calculations behind the headlines covering disputes in maritime Asia.
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Specificații

ISBN-13: 9780197859223
ISBN-10: 0197859224
Pagini: 408
Dimensiuni: 156 x 235 mm
Editura: Oxford University Press
Colecția OUP USA
Locul publicării:New York, United States

Recenzii

Under what conditions is China likely to escalate its maritime disputes? To answer this critically important question, Shuxian Luo develops a theory of signaling and bargaining that emphasizes the tradeoffs between diplomatic/geopolitical and domestic political costs. Luo tests the theory with a carefully designed set of detailed case studies of China's behavior in the East China Sea, South China Sea, and Yellow Sea. Simmering Seas is essential reading for conflict theorists, policymakers, and all interested observers of the Sino-American rivalry.
Simmering Seas is essential reading for anyone seeking to understand China's strategic calculus. This study demolishes the simplistic views of Chinese maritime behavior by documenting the complex reasoning behind China's escalation and de-escalation choices. This work offers numerous practical insights for US and Asian policymakers trying to navigate maritime competition with China. This is a rigorous, timely contribution to our understanding of China's foreign policy.
Simmering Seas is a superb and timely contribution to the study of China's maritime disputes. Combining meticulous empirical research and sophisticated theoretical analysis, Shuxian Luo provides a compelling explanation of the dynamics of escalation and de-escalation regarding conflicts at sea. This book significantly advances both scholarship and policy debates and is essential reading for anyone seeking a nuanced and balanced understanding of maritime security and stability in the Asia-Pacific.
Shuxian Luo's analysis is perhaps the most compelling framework yet to explain why China's leaders have alternated between escalation and de-escalation in maritime disputes with neighboring states. This should be on the reading list of anyone trying to determine how to stand firm without provoking conflict with Beijing.
Shuxian Luo has written a comprehensive, well-researched, and sophisticated analysis of Chinese foreign policy making, with a focus on Chinese policy toward its many territorial disputes with Japan and with its many neighbors in the South China Sea. By examining the interactions since the early 2000s between China's everchanging domestic politics and its regional security interests, Simmering Seas assesses Chinese crisis behavior, considering its calculus to escalate or de-escalate tension over sovereignty disputes and thus the extensive variation in Chinese policy.

Notă biografică

Shuxian Luo is Assistant Professor of Asian Studies at the University of Hawai'i at Manoa. She was formerly a Stanton Nuclear Security Junior Faculty Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, a China Fellow at the Wilson Center, an Assistant Professor at the US Naval War College, a Hans J. Morgenthau Fellow at the Notre Dame International Security Center, and a post-doctoral research fellow at the Brookings Institution.