Sales Forecasting Management: A Demand Management Approach
Autor John T. Mentzer, Mark A. Moonen Limba Engleză Electronic book text – 2 iul 2012
- The author's well-regarded Multicaster software system demo, previously available on cassette, has been updated and is now available for download from the authors' Web site
- New insights on the critical area of qualitative forecasting are presented
- The results of additional surveys done since the publication of the first edition have been added
- The discussion of the four dimensions of forecasting management has been significantly enhanced
- Significant reorganization and updating has been done to strengthen and improve the material for the second edition.
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Specificații
ISBN-13: 9781452222370
ISBN-10: 1452222371
Pagini: 368
Dimensiuni: 152 x 229 mm
Ediția:Second Edition
Editura: SAGE Publications
Colecția Sage Publications, Inc
Locul publicării:Thousand Oaks, United States
ISBN-10: 1452222371
Pagini: 368
Dimensiuni: 152 x 229 mm
Ediția:Second Edition
Editura: SAGE Publications
Colecția Sage Publications, Inc
Locul publicării:Thousand Oaks, United States
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Recenzii
"The
authors
have
shared
their
valuable
experiences
and
knowledge
gained
over
the
years
while
working
with
companies
on
sales
forecasting.
The
book
comprises
of
ten
chapters
in
total
and
provides
good
coverage.
The
book
well
describes
the
issues,
developments
and
required
understanding
about
sales
forecasting
practices
with
illustrations
and
required
possible
information
through
appendixes
and
notes
at
the
end
of
chapters
where
needed."
"The book integrates the theory and practice of sales forecasting management by providing comprehensive coverage of the techniques and applications of sale forecasting analysis. The second edition of the book provides new insights on the critical area of qualitative forecasting. Significant reorganization and updating has been done to strengthen and improve the material for the second edition. It will be very useful for academics as well as business executives who will find much of value and insight from the book."
"The book integrates the theory and practice of sales forecasting management by providing comprehensive coverage of the techniques and applications of sale forecasting analysis. The second edition of the book provides new insights on the critical area of qualitative forecasting. Significant reorganization and updating has been done to strengthen and improve the material for the second edition. It will be very useful for academics as well as business executives who will find much of value and insight from the book."
Cuprins
PREFACE
1. MANAGING THE SALES FORECASTING PROCESS
INTRODUCTION
A DEMAND MANAGEMENT APPROACH TO SALES FORECASTING
SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT
FORECASTS VERSUS PLANS VERSUS TARGETS
THE ROLE OF SALES FORECASTING IN SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING (S&OP)
WHY IS A SALES FORECAST NEEDED?
SUMMARY: ORGANIZATIONAL SALES FORECASTING NEEDS
THE TOOLS OF SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT
SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT QUESTIONS
SALES FORECASTING AND PLANNING: AN ITERATIVE PROCESS
FUNCTIONAL SILOS
OVERVIEW OF THIS BOOK OVERVIEW OF THIS BOOK
2. SALES FORECASTING PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT
INTRODUCTION
SALES FORECASTING ACCURACY
SALES FORECOSTING COSTS
CUSTOMER SATISFACTION
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER--A FORECASTING ROI DECISION
CONCLUSIONS
3. TIMES SERIES FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
INTRODUCTION
FIXED-MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES
FIXED MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES SUMMARY
OPEN-MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES
SUMMARY
4. REGRESSION ANALYSIS
INTRODUCTION
HOW REGRESSION ANALYSIS WORKS
THE PROCESS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS FOR FORECASTING
FURTHER EVALUATION OF CANDIDATE MODELS
MODEL VALIDATION
AN EXAMPLE
CONCLUSION
NOTES
5. QUALITATIVE SALES FORECASTING
INTRODUCTION
QUALITATIVE FORECASTING: ADVANTAGES AND PROBLEMS
SUMMARY: QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUE ADVANTAGES AND PROBLEMS
QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUES AND TOOLS
MARKET RESEARCH TOOLS FOR QUALITATIVE FORECASTING
DECISION ANALYSIS TOOLS FOR QUALITATIVE FORECASTING
SUMMARY
APPENDIX
6. SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS
INTRODUCTION
THE SALES FORECASTING SYSTEM AS A COMMUNICATION VEHICLE
MULTICASTER
SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS: SUMMARY
APPENDIX
7. BENCHMARK STUDIES: THE SURVEYS
INTRODUCTION
STUDIES PRIOR TO PHASE 1
PHASE 2 METHODOLOGY
FINDINGS COMPARING PHASE 1 TO PHASE 2
CONCLUSIONS FROM COMPARING PHASE 1 AND PHASE 2
SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS
SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT
FORECASTING IN CONSUMER VERSUS INDUSTRIAL MARKETS
CONCLUSIONS: INDUSTRIAL VERSUS CONSUMER FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS FROM PHASE 2
8. BENCHMARK STUDIES: WORLD-CLASS FORECASTING
INTRODUCTION
FUNCTIONAL INTEGRATION
APPROACH
SYSTEMS
PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT
CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX: SALES FORECASTING AUDIT PROTOCOL
9. BENCHMARK STUDIES: CONDUCTING A FORECASTING AUDIT
INTRODUCTION
THE ROLE OF AUDITING
MANAGEMENT RESPONSE TO AUDITS
CONCLUSIONS
10. MANAGING THE SALES FORECASTING FUNCTION
INTRODUCTION
THE ROLE OF THE SALES FORECASTING CHAMPION
THE SEVEN KEYS TO BETTER FORECASTING
WHY THE CEO SHOULD CARE
THE CEO SHOULD CARE AT TELLABS
CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
INDEX
1. MANAGING THE SALES FORECASTING PROCESS
INTRODUCTION
A DEMAND MANAGEMENT APPROACH TO SALES FORECASTING
SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT
FORECASTS VERSUS PLANS VERSUS TARGETS
THE ROLE OF SALES FORECASTING IN SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING (S&OP)
WHY IS A SALES FORECAST NEEDED?
SUMMARY: ORGANIZATIONAL SALES FORECASTING NEEDS
THE TOOLS OF SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT
SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT QUESTIONS
SALES FORECASTING AND PLANNING: AN ITERATIVE PROCESS
FUNCTIONAL SILOS
OVERVIEW OF THIS BOOK OVERVIEW OF THIS BOOK
2. SALES FORECASTING PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT
INTRODUCTION
SALES FORECASTING ACCURACY
SALES FORECOSTING COSTS
CUSTOMER SATISFACTION
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER--A FORECASTING ROI DECISION
CONCLUSIONS
3. TIMES SERIES FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
INTRODUCTION
FIXED-MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES
FIXED MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES SUMMARY
OPEN-MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES
SUMMARY
4. REGRESSION ANALYSIS
INTRODUCTION
HOW REGRESSION ANALYSIS WORKS
THE PROCESS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS FOR FORECASTING
FURTHER EVALUATION OF CANDIDATE MODELS
MODEL VALIDATION
AN EXAMPLE
CONCLUSION
NOTES
5. QUALITATIVE SALES FORECASTING
INTRODUCTION
QUALITATIVE FORECASTING: ADVANTAGES AND PROBLEMS
SUMMARY: QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUE ADVANTAGES AND PROBLEMS
QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUES AND TOOLS
MARKET RESEARCH TOOLS FOR QUALITATIVE FORECASTING
DECISION ANALYSIS TOOLS FOR QUALITATIVE FORECASTING
SUMMARY
APPENDIX
6. SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS
INTRODUCTION
THE SALES FORECASTING SYSTEM AS A COMMUNICATION VEHICLE
MULTICASTER
SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS: SUMMARY
APPENDIX
7. BENCHMARK STUDIES: THE SURVEYS
INTRODUCTION
STUDIES PRIOR TO PHASE 1
PHASE 2 METHODOLOGY
FINDINGS COMPARING PHASE 1 TO PHASE 2
CONCLUSIONS FROM COMPARING PHASE 1 AND PHASE 2
SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS
SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT
FORECASTING IN CONSUMER VERSUS INDUSTRIAL MARKETS
CONCLUSIONS: INDUSTRIAL VERSUS CONSUMER FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS FROM PHASE 2
8. BENCHMARK STUDIES: WORLD-CLASS FORECASTING
INTRODUCTION
FUNCTIONAL INTEGRATION
APPROACH
SYSTEMS
PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT
CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX: SALES FORECASTING AUDIT PROTOCOL
9. BENCHMARK STUDIES: CONDUCTING A FORECASTING AUDIT
INTRODUCTION
THE ROLE OF AUDITING
MANAGEMENT RESPONSE TO AUDITS
CONCLUSIONS
10. MANAGING THE SALES FORECASTING FUNCTION
INTRODUCTION
THE ROLE OF THE SALES FORECASTING CHAMPION
THE SEVEN KEYS TO BETTER FORECASTING
WHY THE CEO SHOULD CARE
THE CEO SHOULD CARE AT TELLABS
CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
INDEX
Descriere
Incorporating
25
years
of
sales
forecasting
management
research
with
more
than
400
companies,Sales
Forecasting
Management,
Second
Edition is
the
first
text
to
truly
integrate
the
theory
and
practice
of
sales
forecasting
management.
This
research
includes
the
personal
experiences
of
John
T.
Mentzer
and
Mark
A.
Moon
in
advising
companies
how
to
improve
their
sales
forecasting
management
practices.
Their
program
of
research
includes
two
major
surveys
of
companies'
sales
forecasting
practices,
a
two-year,
in-depth
study
of
sales
forecasting
management
practices
of
20
major
companies,
and
an
ongoing
study
of
how
to
apply
the
findings
from
the
two-year
study
to
conducting
sales
forecasting
audits
of
additional
companies.
The
book
provides
comprehensive
coverage
of
the
techniques
and
applications
of
sales
forecasting
analysis,
combined
with
a
managerial
focus
to
give
managers
and
users
of
the
sales
forecasting
function
a
clear
understanding
of
the
forecasting
needs
of
all
business
functions.
Notă biografică
Dr. John T. (Tom) Mentzer is the Harry J. and Vivienne R. Bruce Chair of Excellence in Business in the Department of Marketing, Logistics and Transportation at the University of Tennessee. He has written more than 170 papers and articles, which have appeared in the Journal of Marketing, Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, the Journal of MacroMarketing, Industrial Marketing Management, the Journal of Marketing Education, the Columbia Journal of World Business, Research in Marketing, Social Indicators Research, the International Journal of Physical Distribution and Materials Management, the Journal of Business Logistics, the Logistics and Transportation Review, Transportation Journal, the Journal of Business Research, Advances in Business Research, the Journal of Forecasting, the Journal of Business Forecasting, and numerous conference proceedings. He has co-authored five books: SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT, SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT, SIMULATED PRODUCT SALES FORECASTING, MARKETING TODAY, and READINGS IN MARKETING TODAY and edited the monograph MARKETING EDUCATION SOFTWARE. Dr. Mentzer was recognized in 1996 as one of the five most prolific authors in the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, and in 1999 as the most prolific author in the Journal of Business Logistics. He was awarded the Academy of Marketing Science Outstanding Marketing Teacher Award in 2001.