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Making Hard Decisions with Decisiontools de Robert Clemen

Making Hard Decisions with Decisiontools

Autor Robert Clemen, Terence Reilly
en Limba Engleză Hardback – 28 mai 2013
MAKING HARD DECISIONS WITH DECISIONTOOLS is a new edition of Bob Clemen's best-selling title, MAKING HARD DECISIONS. This straightforward book teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis, without an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in decision analysis. This new version incorporates and implements the powerful DecisionTools software by Palisade Corporation, the world's leading toolkit for risk and decision analysis. At the end of each chapter, topics are illustrated with step-by-step instructions for DecisionTools. This new version makes the text more useful and relevant to students in business and engineering.
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Specificații

ISBN-13: 9780538797573
ISBN-10: 0538797576
Pagini: 848
Ilustrații: black & white tables, figures
Dimensiuni: 189 x 238 x 38 mm
Greutate: 1.43 kg
Ediția:3rd edition
Editura: CENGAGE LEARNING

Recenzii

1. Introduction to Decision Analysis. SECTION I: MODELING DECISIONS. 2. Elements of Decision Problems. 3. Structuring Decisions. 4. Making Choices. 5. Sensitivity Analysis. 6. Organizational Decision Making. SECTION II: MODELING UNCERTAINTY. 7. Probability Basics. 8. Subjective Probability. 9. Theoretical Probability Models. 10. Using Data. 11. Monte Carlo Simulation. 12. Value of Information. 13. Real Options. SECTION III. MODELING PREFERENCES. 14. Risk Attitudes. 15. Utility Axioms, Paradoxes, and Implications. 16. Conflicting Objectives I: Fundamental Objectives and the Additive Utility Function. 17. Conflicting Objectives II: Multiattribute Utility Models with Interactions 18. Conclusions and Further Reading.

"The book is very usable for students, even if they don't use it for class. I recommend to all my students that MAKING HARD DECISIONS should be part of their professional library." - Andrew G. Loerch, George Mason University

Notă biografică

Robert T. Clemen is Professor at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. He has been an active contributor to the field of decision analysis since earning his Ph.D. at Indiana University in 1984 and is an authority in the use of expert information in decision and risk analysis. He has interests in applying decision analysis in the areas of energy use and corporate sustainabiligy. Aside from his research interests, Bob has a strong focus on making decision analysis understandable to all students at all levels, ranging from high school students to executives.

Cuprins

1. Introduction to Decision Analysis. SECTION I: MODELING DECISIONS. 2. Elements of Decision Problems. 3. Structuring Decisions. 4. Making Choices. 5. Sensitivity Analysis. 6. Organizational Decision Making. SECTION II: MODELING UNCERTAINTY. 7. Probability Basics. 8. Subjective Probability. 9. Theoretical Probability Models. 10. Using Data. 11. Monte Carlo Simulation. 12. Value of Information. 13. Real Options. SECTION III. MODELING PREFERENCES. 14. Risk Attitudes. 15. Utility Axioms, Paradoxes, and Implications. 16. Conflicting Objectives I: Fundamental Objectives and the Additive Utility Function. 17. Conflicting Objectives II: Multiattribute Utility Models with Interactions 18. Conclusions and Further Reading.